Decision Analysis

1. Identify the elements of decision problems.
2. Explain the process of problem solving and decision making.
3. Explain the Army problem solving process
4. Apply the troop leading procedures (TLP).
5. Apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process for solving a decision making problem
6. Explain the The military decision making process (MDMP).
7. Use decision support systems in decision making.
8. Apply methods for decision making under uncertainty and risk.
9. Apply the basic group decision making methods.
10. Develop their ability of critical thinking, planning and decision making skills

Lectures will be conducted through presentations and active interaction between lecturers and students.

Seminars aim at deepening the students' understanding of the content, its analysis, evaluation as well as forming a personal attitude towards the content.

Exercises will be geared toward practical application of knowledge and skills on concrete, real scenarios and examples.

1. Lectures: Introduction to the course - aims of the course. Business decisions. Problem solving and decision making. Elements of decision problems, objectives, alternatives, criteria. The link between the objectives and criteria. Hierarchical structur of the set of criteria; fundamental objectives, means objectives and goals. Decision analysis as part of the problem-solving process. Simon's, Mintzberg's and Boyd's decision-making models. The quality of decisions, the key factors of the quality of decisions. Seminar: Problem solving and decision making. Exercises: Problem solving and decision making.
2. Lectures: Types of decisions and approaches to decision making. Programmed and non programmed decisions, characteristics of programmed and non programmed decisions. Strategic, tactical and operational decision making and goals. Examples. Approaches to decision-making: the rational decision-making, decision-making based on intuitive judgment. Intuition and military decision making. Seminar: Types of decisions and approaches to decision making Exercises: Types of decisions and approaches to decision making
3. Lectures: Decision making styles. Autocratic and democratic style of decision-making. Analytical, conceptual, directive and behavioral style of decision-making. Janis Mann decision making style. Vroom-Yetton decision making model. Individual, organizational and cultural variables of the decision making styles. Military decisions and decision-making styles. Seminar: Decision making styles . Decision makimg styles and The Army problem solving process. Exercises: Decision making styles . Decision makimg styles and Troop leading procedures (TLP).
4. Lectures: Organizational context of business decision making. Organizational structure and its effect on managerial decision-making. The main variables that determine the organizational structure: formalization, centralization and structural differentiation. Command and control organization structure C2OS. Four kinds of decision-making entity organization structure (DMEOS) based on the analysis of military C2 organization. Decentralized organization structure (DCOS) and centralized organization structure (COS), and distributed organization structure with coordinator (DOSWC) and complete distributed organization structure (CDOS). The characteristics and performances of different DMEOS. Seminar: Organizational context of business decision making. Exercises: Organizational context of business decision making.
5. Lectures: Decision theories. Normative decision theory. Descriptive decision theory. Prescriptive decision theory. Seminar: Decision theories. Exercises: Decision theories.
6. Lectures: PrOACT approach to decision-making: Problem, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Tradeoffs. Ewen Swap method. Dominated alternatives, irrelevant attributes and practical domination. Seminar: PrOACT approach to decision-making and evan-swap method. Exercises: PrOACT approach to decision-making and evan-swap method.
7. Lectures: Psychological influences in decision-making: psychodynamic, behavioral, humanistic, neurobiological and cognitive approach to decision making. Traps in decision making: anchoring, status-quo trap, confirmation. Pitfalls of previous decisions, sunk-costs. Trap. Pitfalls of formulating the problem. Pitfalls of estimates and predictions. The consequences of errors in decision-making. How to avoid the most common errors in decision-making. Seminar: Psychological influences in decision-making Exercises: Psychological influences in decision-making
8. Lectures: Psychological influences in military decision making. Heuristics and biases in military decisions. Intuitive decision making, RPD process. Seminar: Psychological influences in military decision making. Exercises: Psychological influences in military decision making.
9. Lectures: Decision making under uncertainty and risk. Basic rules for decision-making under uncertainty: Wald's rule, Hurwicz's rule, Savage's rule, Laplace's rule and the expected value. The case where the expected value is not a good criterion for the decision. Seminar: Decision making under uncertainty and risk. Exercises: Decision making under uncertainty and risk.
10. Lectures: Decision tree and related decisions. The basic elements of a decision tree: decision node and event node. Relevant information for decision tree model: probability, payments and expected value. The value of complete information. Bayes' theorem and the value of sample information. Software support for the decision tree model: programs Treeplan or PrecisionTree. Seminar: Decisin tree. Exercises: Decisin tree.
11. Lectures: A method of priority determination based on pair comparisons. Saaty's scale and eigenvalue method for priority determination. Consistency measurement. A simplified procedure for calculating the priority of alternatives and criteria weights. Determination of weight criteria in a situation where alternatives are known; method SWING. Seminar: A method of priority determination based on pair comparisons. Exercises: A method of priority determination based on pair comparisons.
12. Lectures: Analytical Hierarchy Process. Axioms and theory for the AHP. Hierarchical structure of decision making problems. Measuring the consistency of peirvise comparisons. Software for AHP method: Expert Choice, DecisionLens, SuperDecisions. Seminar: Analytical Hierarchy Process. Exercises: Analytical Hierarchy Process.
13. Lectures: Application of AHP method in solving complex problems, equipment selection, analysis of strategic decisions, project portfolio planning. Seminar: Application of AHP method in solving complex problems. Exercises: Application of AHP method in solving complex problems.
14. Lectures: Group decision making. Techniques of group decision making, brainstorming, Delphi, nominal group technique. AHP and group decision making. Software for group decision. Seminar: Group decision making. Exercises: Group decision making.
15. Lectures: Decision Support Systems (DSS). Components of DSS. DSS and military decisions. Seminar: Decision Support Systems (DSS). Exercises: Decision Support Systems (DSS).